Two kings and my third nut.
1-2 NL
My hand KK in the BB
Limps to me in the bb so now were 4 handed. I felt like limping here because I have been very active and i felt like I have created a lot of value for myself in pair vs. pair situations . For example I don't think anyone was wanting to fold kj to me on a j52 board. I almost always raise in this spot though.
So I check my big blind.
Flop is K Q T rainbow
Action is: check,I check, bet 10$,button flat calls 10$,
fold, I raise to 50$, original raiser folds,button raises to 110 By grabbing a barrel and just slamming it down out there inside the betting ring. A gesture of which "q" a great player would say is strength. In his words," a come and get some bet".
So now the pot is 188$ and its 60 for me to call. 3-1. The button has 211 more and i have him covered. I felt like I was beat like 85% of the time. Sammy, for those who don't know him you better ask somebody, stated that this 3-bet is always the nuts. His opinion is that everyone at this level will flat call or fold with everything else.
So its 3-1 to me. The odds of me hitting my full house on the next card are 5.7 - 1. So to break even I need to make 5.7 times the 60$ or 392$. That's 204 more than whats in the pot now. So essentially i need to get his whole stack once i hit the full house. When I do hit my hand the board will be paired and I gotta believe I will stack off most players regardless, but some people will get away from a straight. So the small percentage of the time a player folds the turn or river because the board pairs it makes the implied odds incorrect. So this play is wrong to me.
Also if I call and miss the turn. The pot will be 248$ The action will always be something like check, bet . I think he will bet something like 100 - all in. So if he bets 100 I will have to call getting about 3.5-1. and hitting the full house here is 3.7-1. But really he will probably stack off regardless of what comes. Now that he only has 111 left and a 448$ pot out there. So really I'm getting about 4.6- 1 . So i will have to call. If he pushes all in on the turn I will have to call 211$ to make 459$ or 2.2- 1 which is incorrect.
So calling the flop is wrong. Folding the flop seems weak, but correct right now. Pushing is the last option.
Pushing all in:
My equity is 35%( odds of making my full house)
my fold equity is 5% or less.( could be 0% I believe he could have j9 a small percent of the time. I also have seen strange things like people folding the nuts!He could be bluffing I could see someone just getting sick of me!)
So 5% of the time i win 188$ or +9$
35% of the time I win 610$ or +214$
60% of the time i lose 211$ or -127$
for a total ev of +96
It was a tough and weird spot. The pot was limped and so it was tough for me to put him on Aj. I also had thoughts like he cant give me credit for a real big hand because it was limped. Obviously hes not afraid of j9 also with the re raise he put in.
In my head the math was simpler. To call I need about 6 times the 60 or 360 or about 200 more than whats in the pot. Break even at best. To push Ill win 1/3 of the time or 1/3 of 610
or 203 I thought at that number that it was right because he only had about 200 left. and the rest of the equation could only add up to me losing a percentage of my remaining effective stack. Also at the time i thought i had like 15% fold equity. Now I believe ,in that spot, its a lot less.
My hand KK in the BB
Limps to me in the bb so now were 4 handed. I felt like limping here because I have been very active and i felt like I have created a lot of value for myself in pair vs. pair situations . For example I don't think anyone was wanting to fold kj to me on a j52 board. I almost always raise in this spot though.
So I check my big blind.
Flop is K Q T rainbow
Action is: check,I check, bet 10$,button flat calls 10$,
fold, I raise to 50$, original raiser folds,button raises to 110 By grabbing a barrel and just slamming it down out there inside the betting ring. A gesture of which "q" a great player would say is strength. In his words," a come and get some bet".
So now the pot is 188$ and its 60 for me to call. 3-1. The button has 211 more and i have him covered. I felt like I was beat like 85% of the time. Sammy, for those who don't know him you better ask somebody, stated that this 3-bet is always the nuts. His opinion is that everyone at this level will flat call or fold with everything else.
So its 3-1 to me. The odds of me hitting my full house on the next card are 5.7 - 1. So to break even I need to make 5.7 times the 60$ or 392$. That's 204 more than whats in the pot now. So essentially i need to get his whole stack once i hit the full house. When I do hit my hand the board will be paired and I gotta believe I will stack off most players regardless, but some people will get away from a straight. So the small percentage of the time a player folds the turn or river because the board pairs it makes the implied odds incorrect. So this play is wrong to me.
Also if I call and miss the turn. The pot will be 248$ The action will always be something like check, bet . I think he will bet something like 100 - all in. So if he bets 100 I will have to call getting about 3.5-1. and hitting the full house here is 3.7-1. But really he will probably stack off regardless of what comes. Now that he only has 111 left and a 448$ pot out there. So really I'm getting about 4.6- 1 . So i will have to call. If he pushes all in on the turn I will have to call 211$ to make 459$ or 2.2- 1 which is incorrect.
So calling the flop is wrong. Folding the flop seems weak, but correct right now. Pushing is the last option.
Pushing all in:
My equity is 35%( odds of making my full house)
my fold equity is 5% or less.( could be 0% I believe he could have j9 a small percent of the time. I also have seen strange things like people folding the nuts!He could be bluffing I could see someone just getting sick of me!)
So 5% of the time i win 188$ or +9$
35% of the time I win 610$ or +214$
60% of the time i lose 211$ or -127$
for a total ev of +96
It was a tough and weird spot. The pot was limped and so it was tough for me to put him on Aj. I also had thoughts like he cant give me credit for a real big hand because it was limped. Obviously hes not afraid of j9 also with the re raise he put in.
In my head the math was simpler. To call I need about 6 times the 60 or 360 or about 200 more than whats in the pot. Break even at best. To push Ill win 1/3 of the time or 1/3 of 610
or 203 I thought at that number that it was right because he only had about 200 left. and the rest of the equation could only add up to me losing a percentage of my remaining effective stack. Also at the time i thought i had like 15% fold equity. Now I believe ,in that spot, its a lot less.
So If I push the Ev is +153, and If I fold I keep my 211 so the decision, from a hard math standpoint, should have been to fold.
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