In the theory of poker sklansky advocates betting an amount that makes it incorrect to draw and is less than what they will fold for. That is if you have showdown value.
So when the pot is 10$ and they have a flush draw you need to bet at least 3.13$ seems ridiculous right? The equation is
pot+bet=4.2*bet
or
10+x=4.2x
because 4.2 is the odds against hitting your flush on the turn. which simplified means reducing 4.2x to 3.2x=10 or 10/3.2.
So simply reducing the draw odds down to 1 less is an easy way to find the break even point. I know this seems real mechanical and ridiculous because we all bet 2/3 pot or more and they always call. And how do you bet 3.13$?
I have a point, wait for it.
When you think they have a straight draw the bet should be at least 2.56$
These numbers are extremely low. Lets turn the situation around. My point is how often should you call the warmers?
Say you have a flush draw and you check to the warmer and he bets 10$ and you want to call. If you call to hit your flush you need to make 42$ There is 20$ in there already so he needs to call or bet 22$ more either on the turn or river.Does this happen a lot? I don't think so not when there are 3 of a suit up there. I think the action a lot of times goes check check turn then bet fold the river. Or maybe he calls 15$ on the river, maybe. I like to lead the turn because its a weird line and with 3 to a suit he could have one of them and decide to draw. The real value comes from other players in the hand. The implied odds of them hitting a hand like a flush also. So the idea is to have big flushes in multi way pots right? i think I drip a lot of money always assuming there will be other callers making my odds correct. Or that I will make enough money off of the player when i get there. I also know that raising is a better play. Check raising is a strong play that sends the message that a lot of money is going in on the turn and the river. So the tags and taps could fold a lot of hands.
Full ring 1-2 NL
All players are 150 deep
4 Limpers including you with Ah4h
On a kh7h2c board you check and the average player in position bets 10$ into a 10$ pot
I think his range is something like
22 3 possible combinations of this hand 3%
77 3 combos 3%
kq 12 combos 15%
kj 12 combos 15%
kt 12 15%
k9 12 15%
k8s 3 3%
k7s 3 3%
tt 6 not likely but in this hand he was checked to in position 7%
aa 6 people do like to get tricky sometimes! 7%
kk 3 3%
56h 1 1%
89h 1 1%
45h 1 1%
68h 1 1%
9t h 1 1%
tj h 1 1%
qjh 1 1%
Skip down to the ♣ if you want to skip this boring section.
If your image is decent and you raise he will probably fold most of these hands: all flush draws 7%, all one pair kings 51% tt3% so ur fold equity is around 61% He flats you with AA 22 kk and k7 or he flats you 17% and he re raises you 22% and I know that the card combination odds should be weighted toward kx type hands and maybe a little less than 3% for the 22 and 77 because alot of players would rather check with these hands but it only changes the math slightly. Also some players will re raise with 22 and 77 every time but some do not. A lot of intangibles could be figured and will change this math slightly but make it very cumbersome and hard to read.
If your image is a little crazy then maybe they only fold king x half of the time and decide to draw against you half of the time. So your fold equity drops to 37% He flats you 34% and re raises you 29%
So the action is to you kh7h2c.
Your image is decent and you decide to check raise to 40 .
So now 61 % of the time he folds and you win the 20 or +12$
He re raises you off of the hand 22% for -9$
17 % of the time he flats you and you hit your card on the turn 19% of the time.or about 3% + implied odds of future streets.
17 % of the time he flats and you miss or about 14%
Implied odds: He calls you hit the flush.
Now if he flats and you hit your card I think given the action of this hand that he will call at least one more bet 50% of the time whether you check the turn bet the river or you bet the turn then he folds the river( not likely) lets say you bet 60 so that's 45% of 60 or + 27$
35% you can get it all. or 35% of his remaining 108$ + 38$
17% he folds + 0
3% o f the time he full houses and gets all of your stack - 3$
so the implied odds of hitting your card after he flats you are a total of +62$ + the pot 20$ or 82$
3% of 82 is about 3$
reverse implied odds he flats you miss:
ev situation without laying out the math 30% of the time he pushes in and you have to fold for - 40 or -12$
50 % of the time he checks behind and you hit your card 20% for 10% of 20$ or +2$ or about - 5 $
14% of -5$ is -.70cents
So if he folds +12
He re raises you -9
He flats :
you hit +3
you miss -.7
+ 5.3$ ev
with a crazy image:
he folds 37% + 7 $
he raises you off the hand 29% or -11.6
he flats :
he flats you hit 29% of 19% or 5% total
implied odds If you hit your hand its less likely that he has a flush also but it ensures that you get the whole stack. I would guess that with your image you get it all a lot of the time like 65% so + 70.2
10% of the time you only get one more 60$ bet + 6$
22% of the time they put you on the flush and fold +0
3% they house you and get your whole stack -4$
total expectation of 72.2$
5% of 72.2 is +3.61$
he flats you miss:
40% action goes check bet and you have to fold I believe that since my image is crazy that if I check they will bet here and bet enough.
60% it goes check check so 12% i get there and lets say for simplicities sake that 50% the time i win one more bet or 50% of 60 $ so + 30$ so 12% of 30$ or +3.6$
the remaining 48% of the 60% is when it goes check check and i pretty much lose the hand. I miss the draw and they are not folding alot of the time on the river for one more bet. so the expectation here is 48% of 40$ or -19.2
so the total expectation of him flatting and you miss the turn is -15.6* the remaining 24% of the he flats you miss category= -3.74
So the total ev of check raising with a crazy image is
he folds +7$
he raises you off the hand -11.6
he flats:
you hit +3.61
you miss -3.74
-4.73 total ev
♣ So a + 5.3 ev if your image is decent and a -4.73ev if your image is crazy. I know you will disagree with a lot of the probabilities and percentages i assigned but i do not believe that they will change the conclusion here. I know I could treat an ace as an out also but maybe its not. This is in a game where you are playing a lot of hands and a lot of hands out of position. Its a somewhat typical situation and you can deduce yourself how more players in the pot and how loose your opponent really is can help you or hurt you. It seems to me like you need to have the ability to steal the pot out right with a crazy image and only bet made hands. As a decent imaged player you can maneuver more. Maybe you could make a case for barreling the turn. I believe that once I re raise the flop the hand range is pretty polarized and maybe ill pick up a few more folds on the decent image ev side. So this will only make the conclusion clearer.
So when the pot is 10$ and they have a flush draw you need to bet at least 3.13$ seems ridiculous right? The equation is
pot+bet=4.2*bet
or
10+x=4.2x
because 4.2 is the odds against hitting your flush on the turn. which simplified means reducing 4.2x to 3.2x=10 or 10/3.2.
So simply reducing the draw odds down to 1 less is an easy way to find the break even point. I know this seems real mechanical and ridiculous because we all bet 2/3 pot or more and they always call. And how do you bet 3.13$?
I have a point, wait for it.
When you think they have a straight draw the bet should be at least 2.56$
These numbers are extremely low. Lets turn the situation around. My point is how often should you call the warmers?
Say you have a flush draw and you check to the warmer and he bets 10$ and you want to call. If you call to hit your flush you need to make 42$ There is 20$ in there already so he needs to call or bet 22$ more either on the turn or river.Does this happen a lot? I don't think so not when there are 3 of a suit up there. I think the action a lot of times goes check check turn then bet fold the river. Or maybe he calls 15$ on the river, maybe. I like to lead the turn because its a weird line and with 3 to a suit he could have one of them and decide to draw. The real value comes from other players in the hand. The implied odds of them hitting a hand like a flush also. So the idea is to have big flushes in multi way pots right? i think I drip a lot of money always assuming there will be other callers making my odds correct. Or that I will make enough money off of the player when i get there. I also know that raising is a better play. Check raising is a strong play that sends the message that a lot of money is going in on the turn and the river. So the tags and taps could fold a lot of hands.
Full ring 1-2 NL
All players are 150 deep
4 Limpers including you with Ah4h
On a kh7h2c board you check and the average player in position bets 10$ into a 10$ pot
I think his range is something like
22 3 possible combinations of this hand 3%
77 3 combos 3%
kq 12 combos 15%
kj 12 combos 15%
kt 12 15%
k9 12 15%
k8s 3 3%
k7s 3 3%
tt 6 not likely but in this hand he was checked to in position 7%
aa 6 people do like to get tricky sometimes! 7%
kk 3 3%
56h 1 1%
89h 1 1%
45h 1 1%
68h 1 1%
9t h 1 1%
tj h 1 1%
qjh 1 1%
Skip down to the ♣ if you want to skip this boring section.
If your image is decent and you raise he will probably fold most of these hands: all flush draws 7%, all one pair kings 51% tt3% so ur fold equity is around 61% He flats you with AA 22 kk and k7 or he flats you 17% and he re raises you 22% and I know that the card combination odds should be weighted toward kx type hands and maybe a little less than 3% for the 22 and 77 because alot of players would rather check with these hands but it only changes the math slightly. Also some players will re raise with 22 and 77 every time but some do not. A lot of intangibles could be figured and will change this math slightly but make it very cumbersome and hard to read.
If your image is a little crazy then maybe they only fold king x half of the time and decide to draw against you half of the time. So your fold equity drops to 37% He flats you 34% and re raises you 29%
So the action is to you kh7h2c.
Your image is decent and you decide to check raise to 40 .
So now 61 % of the time he folds and you win the 20 or +12$
He re raises you off of the hand 22% for -9$
17 % of the time he flats you and you hit your card on the turn 19% of the time.or about 3% + implied odds of future streets.
17 % of the time he flats and you miss or about 14%
Implied odds: He calls you hit the flush.
Now if he flats and you hit your card I think given the action of this hand that he will call at least one more bet 50% of the time whether you check the turn bet the river or you bet the turn then he folds the river( not likely) lets say you bet 60 so that's 45% of 60 or + 27$
35% you can get it all. or 35% of his remaining 108$ + 38$
17% he folds + 0
3% o f the time he full houses and gets all of your stack - 3$
so the implied odds of hitting your card after he flats you are a total of +62$ + the pot 20$ or 82$
3% of 82 is about 3$
reverse implied odds he flats you miss:
ev situation without laying out the math 30% of the time he pushes in and you have to fold for - 40 or -12$
50 % of the time he checks behind and you hit your card 20% for 10% of 20$ or +2$ or about - 5 $
14% of -5$ is -.70cents
So if he folds +12
He re raises you -9
He flats :
you hit +3
you miss -.7
+ 5.3$ ev
with a crazy image:
he folds 37% + 7 $
he raises you off the hand 29% or -11.6
he flats :
he flats you hit 29% of 19% or 5% total
implied odds If you hit your hand its less likely that he has a flush also but it ensures that you get the whole stack. I would guess that with your image you get it all a lot of the time like 65% so + 70.2
10% of the time you only get one more 60$ bet + 6$
22% of the time they put you on the flush and fold +0
3% they house you and get your whole stack -4$
total expectation of 72.2$
5% of 72.2 is +3.61$
he flats you miss:
40% action goes check bet and you have to fold I believe that since my image is crazy that if I check they will bet here and bet enough.
60% it goes check check so 12% i get there and lets say for simplicities sake that 50% the time i win one more bet or 50% of 60 $ so + 30$ so 12% of 30$ or +3.6$
the remaining 48% of the 60% is when it goes check check and i pretty much lose the hand. I miss the draw and they are not folding alot of the time on the river for one more bet. so the expectation here is 48% of 40$ or -19.2
so the total expectation of him flatting and you miss the turn is -15.6* the remaining 24% of the he flats you miss category= -3.74
So the total ev of check raising with a crazy image is
he folds +7$
he raises you off the hand -11.6
he flats:
you hit +3.61
you miss -3.74
-4.73 total ev
♣ So a + 5.3 ev if your image is decent and a -4.73ev if your image is crazy. I know you will disagree with a lot of the probabilities and percentages i assigned but i do not believe that they will change the conclusion here. I know I could treat an ace as an out also but maybe its not. This is in a game where you are playing a lot of hands and a lot of hands out of position. Its a somewhat typical situation and you can deduce yourself how more players in the pot and how loose your opponent really is can help you or hurt you. It seems to me like you need to have the ability to steal the pot out right with a crazy image and only bet made hands. As a decent imaged player you can maneuver more. Maybe you could make a case for barreling the turn. I believe that once I re raise the flop the hand range is pretty polarized and maybe ill pick up a few more folds on the decent image ev side. So this will only make the conclusion clearer.
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