Realistic expectations in a tournament

 I recently listened to an interview with Negreneau who said "in tournaments you should generally not be looking to protect your hand or build big pots but to avoid going broke".  He made an example of a hand where you raise it up with two jacks and the big blind calls and the flop comes q56 with two diamonds and you bet and he calls. now the turn is a brick and he checks. Daniel recommends checking here every time just to avoid the big pot and going broke. ( Don't really understand why the queen was on the board in this example) That's great advice for deep stack tournaments but a lot of tournament situations consist of being 30 big blinds deep or less.
Thinking about this I began to wonder what the odds are of being all in with an over pair 4 times and winning every time. I believe that its basically 80% four times. which comes out to about 41% How about dodging the flush when your opponents flop 4 to a flush 4 times in a row. 18%. or actually flopping a set versus an over pair and winning 4 times in a row with your set.60 %.
 So to win every time set versus over pair 4 times in a row happens only 60% of the time!  That's a very low number to me  and how often does that happen in a tournament anyway?
So lets say you have run deep in a tournament and along the way you avoided a flush draw 4 times. Had a set versus an over pair 2 times. Had an over pair versus a under pair 3 times.  and had someone out kicked 4 times the odds of winning all of these is only 4%. So in this tournament it could be said that you just ran like god. And  that's my advice kids "run like god".